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| Fund Commentaries: Quarterly Portfolio Review |
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Portfolio Review |
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| Summer 2010 | |||||||||||||||||||
Market Perspectives
Since our founding more than 40 years ago in 1969, Davis Advisors’ mission as a firm has been to serve our shareholders and to do so with high integrity. Mindful of the enormous responsibility that comes with serving as a steward of others’ capital, we are firmly committed to:
As a sign of our commitment to all those who have entrusted capital to us, the Davis family, Davis Advisors, employees, and directors have more than $2 billion of their own money invested side by side with fellow shareholders in the various mutual funds our firm manages.1
This report includes candid statements and observations regarding investment strategies, individual securities and economic and market conditions; however, there is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts will prove to be correct. Equity markets are volatile and an investor may lose money. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 1 As of June 30, 2010.
Specifically, the chart below isolates the 11 decades since 1928 when the market has produced subpar returns of less than 5% over 10 years (gold bars). In every case, over the following 10 year period the market has historically generated relatively attractive returns (green bars).2 These periods of recovery averaged 13% per annum (ranging from a low of 7% per annum to a high of 18% per annum), which is above the average long-term return for equities of roughly 10% and well above the past decade’s return.
Source: Thomson Financial, Lipper and Bloomberg. Graph represents the S&P 500® Index from 1958 through 2009. The period 1928 through 1958 is represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Investments cannot be made directly in an index. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Looking at the present situation, the market has declined from its starting level a decade ago, yet the core earnings power of many world-class franchises has increased substantially. That combination of lower prices with rising underlying earnings has led valuations for a large number of quality businesses to contract dramatically, meaning that many of our favorite businesses are now trading at bargain prices. Low valuations set the stage for higher prospective returns and give us reason to believe that the decade ahead may well be more rewarding for quality-oriented equity investors than the last.3 Market conditions may vary from period to period, yet the core tenets of the Davis investment discipline and approach remain the same. We start with the premise that stocks represent fractional ownership in real businesses. We seek to purchase durable businesses at value prices and hold them for the long term. We believe that owning shares of well-managed businesses with attractive reinvestment rates, purchased at reasonable valuations and held for years to allow the power of compounding to work, is a reliable method for building capital over long investment horizons. By definition, owning shares of companies for years or even decades means that some, perhaps all, of our investments will traverse rough patches along the way, whether they are specific to a company, an industry or the broader market. We know in advance that we are going to own businesses in periods of rising interest rates, falling interest rates, inflation, disinflation, a weak dollar, a strong dollar, and so forth. Therefore, when we think about purchasing shares of a company, we have to weigh carefully up front whether we think the business can withstand inevitable shocks in addition to considering the likelihood the business can grow earnings power (and therefore intrinsic worth) over full cycles. Then, company by company, we set out to build a durable, all-weather portfolio of businesses that can compound over the long term. Our Portfolio holds three primary categories of investments:
With its large, strong and durable global franchise, Swiss-based Nestlé is an excellent example of a market leader. Its brands, mostly serving the global food and beverage market segments, include Gerber baby food products, Poland Spring water and Purina pet food, among others. Nestlé sales show broad geographic diversification with revenues spread almost evenly among the United States, Europe and emerging economies. The company has a long history of disciplined capital allocation and regularly returns cash to shareholders through share buybacks and annual dividends. We believe market leaders such as Nestlé, Coca-Cola, Heineken, and Berkshire Hathaway that possess strong brands, proven management, fortress balance sheets, and scale advantages are well positioned to create significant value for long-term shareholders especially starting from today’s very reasonable valuations. Out-of-the-spotlight businesses—The next major category of investments in the Portfolio is out-of-the-spotlight businesses. These are lesser known companies with attractive economics that in our opinion should eventually command higher valuations. Their appeal may take time to gain recognition, often because these businesses are smaller or operate in a mundane non-consumer-oriented industry. Given the right leadership and attractive reinvestment rates, these low-profile holdings can provide the opportunity for the “double play” of expanding multiples on expanding earnings, which can turn a company with a solid earnings growth rate into a stellar investment. As a general rule, out-of-the-spotlight holdings tend to be boring but have the potential to compound returns over time. Current examples of out-of-the-spotlight holdings in the Portfolio include Express Scripts, a leading pharmacy benefit manager, and Progressive Corp., an exceptionally well-managed auto insurance provider. Out-of-the-spotlight holdings can also include hard asset-related businesses such as Occidental Petroleum, an oil exploration and production company that has outperformed the vast majority of its energy-related peers in terms of historical returns on invested capital. The company stands to benefit in our view from disciplined growth of production as well as from the emergence of a global middle class whose energy consumption is likely to grow over time. Headline risk or contrarian investments5—On a very selective basis we make contrarian investments. These often involve controversial situations where the market is discounting a company’s share price to reflect a perception of risk that we think is greater than the probable economic risk to the business’s long-term fundamentals. Typically a minor portion of our portfolios in percentage terms, headline risk investments can sometimes be difficult for clients to understand because they beg the question, “Don’t you read the papers?” But it is precisely because so many other investors automatically sell companies with near-term challenges, however surmountable, that the potential for high returns exists in many such instances. Our job is to ferret out opportunities that represent favorable risk/reward trade-offs and do our best to avoid the value traps. We will not get every investment right. However, overall this distinctly contrarian element of our investment discipline has been an important contributor to our long-term success and may be an effective way to capitalize on herd mentality in the market. As an example, uncertainty associated with health care reform in the United States has created opportunity in recent months. In the last few quarters we increased our Portfolio allocation to Merck and other select, high quality pharmaceutical businesses at what we believe were depressed valuations offering dividend yields in excess of 3% to 4% at the time of purchase. Overall, the investments we have made in the three categories described above combine to create a Portfolio that we believe is well diversified and can produce satisfactory compound returns over full market cycles.6 4 Individual securities are discussed in this piece. While we believe we have a reasonable basis for our appraisals and we have confidence in our opinions, actual results may differ materially from those we anticipate. The return of a security to the Fund will vary based on weighting and timing of purchase. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 5 While we research companies subject to such contingencies, we cannot be correct every time, and a company’s stock may never recover. 6 While we believe we have a reasonable basis for our appraisals and we have confidence in our opinions, actual results may differ materially from those we anticipate. Equity markets are volatile and an investor may lose money. For the year-to-date period ending June 30, 2010 the S&P 500® Index returned –6.65%. Selected American Shares underperformed the broader market during that brief time period.7 Longer term Selected American Shares has outperformed the Index over the trailing 1, 5, 10, and 15 year periods as well as since Davis Advisors began managing the Fund in 1993.7
The performance presented represents past performance and is not a guarantee of future results. Total return assumes reinvestment of dividends and capital gain distributions. Investment return and principal value will vary so that, when redeemed, an investor's shares may be worth more or less than their original cost. The total annual operating expense ratio for Class S shares as of the most recent prospectus was 0.94%. The total annual operating expense ratio may vary in future years. Returns and expenses for other classes of shares will vary. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance quoted. For most recent month-end returns, click here or call 800-243-1575. Taking a longer view, the Portfolio is essentially a group of business models that we have researched and view as attractive vehicles that may compound capital over the long term based on their management quality, business durability and competitive advantages, coupled with relatively attractive valuations. As noted earlier, these businesses generally fall into one of three categories–i.e., market leaders with strong balance sheets, out-of-the-spotlight holdings and contrarian investments. They also represent a broad array of industries and business activities, creating a Portfolio that is prudently diversified in our view. Below we have summarized the current positioning of the Portfolio by economic activity to illustrate this diversification in addition to highlighting where we are finding long-term opportunities. Businesses engaged primarily in some broadly defined facet of financial services currently represent the largest sector weighting in the Portfolio. This broad sector exposure encompasses many highly distinct industries and thus is well diversified by itself. For instance, we currently own: diversified holdings companies like Berkshire Hathaway and Loews with insurance subsidiaries but also interests in utilities, natural gas pipelines and railroads, among other business lines; banks like JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo engaged in traditional lending activities; Bank of New York Mellon, which does little lending but instead specializes in trust services, custody and processing as well as asset management; Progressive, a pure-play personal lines auto insurer; American Express, a global charge card business; and Ameriprise Financial, which offers a broad array of financial services to middle class Americans; and so forth. Overall, there is no single overarching theme that runs through all of our financial holdings. Each business is somewhat unique. What our specific financial holdings generally have in common is that they meet our strict investment criteria in terms of management quality, business models, competitive advantages, and valuations. We have a longstanding interest in financial services for three main reasons: First, due to the sector’s sheer size and fragmented market structure, well-managed operators have the potential to grow earnings for years, even decades, by expanding market share relative to marginal competitors. Second, although the future is always uncertain, we believe the financial services category as a whole is not particularly prone to obsolescence since consumers and businesses generally need basic banking, insurance, investment management, custody, and other such services on an ongoing basis. That fundamental durability can allow investments to compound over many, many years. Last but not least, valuations for the sector tend to be relatively modest, meaning some of the best-managed businesses in the world can frequently be purchased at value prices and held for the long term. Select energy, natural resource and materials holdings are the next largest weighting in the Portfolio. Our investments include energy-related businesses that are engaged in the exploration and production of oil and/or natural gas such as Canadian Natural Resources, Occidental Petroleum, EOG Resources, and Devon Energy; Sealed Air, a leading manufacturer of protective packaging (classified as a materials holding); and Monsanto, a global research and development company specializing in biotech-agricultural products. In this area of the Portfolio we seek first and foremost to invest in businesses with the ability to create substantial shareholder value through disciplined capital allocation. In addition, we believe a number of our holdings, particularly those related to oil, offer us the opportunity to benefit should the price of this global commodity trend higher over time due to increasing demand from fast-growing, populous nations such as China and India. Consumer staples represent a meaningful portion of the Portfolio as well. Within this broadly defined category we own: Costco, a low-cost, membership-based retailer; globally dominant beverage companies like Diageo, Coca-Cola and Heineken with significant growth opportunities in emerging markets; Procter & Gamble, a consumer products powerhouse that boasts more than 20 global brands each of which generates more than $1 billion of sales annually; and CVS, a pharmacy benefit manager/retail pharmacy operator, among other businesses types. These consumer related businesses cannot be grouped under a single universal theme. Put simply, these companies satisfy our preference for strong management, durable businesses, sustainable competitive advantages, and reasonable valuations. One additional feature we like about globally dominant consumer brands is that they generally exhibit strong pricing power, i.e., the ability to pass on higher costs to brand-loyal customers in the form of higher prices. This may prove significant in the long run should inflation rear its ugly head again at some point. Health care related businesses are the next largest weighting in the Portfolio. Our health care investments encompass a wide range of business types including Merck and Pfizer (leading pharmaceutical manufacturers), Express Scripts (a leading pharmacy benefit manager) and Becton, Dickinson (a globally diversified medical supply provider). Here, in addition to owning well-managed, durable businesses, we also like the long-term demographic tailwind that helps support the industry’s economics. Specifically, we believe that health care spending is likely to rise over the next decade as a percentage of global output as developed countries spend more on medical products and services to meet the needs of aging populations and as developing countries are increasingly able to afford the luxury of health care. Meanwhile, as noted earlier, in recent months a number of well-managed health care related businesses have traded at multiples as low as 5 to 12 times earnings with dividend yields in excess of 3% to 4%. The balance of the Portfolio is broadly diversified among well-managed businesses in the technology, industrial and consumer discretionary sectors. Once again, the common thread running through these holdings is that each was selected according to the Davis investment discipline with an emphasis on management quality, business model strength, durable competitive advantages, and appropriate valuations. The sum total of our investments creates a Portfolio that in our view affords our clients the potential to generate satisfactory compound returns over the course of many years while managing risk through prudent diversification.8 All of us at Davis Advisors thank you for your support. We are grateful and fortunate to have your confidence and will continue to work hard on your behalf. We look forward to continuing our investment journey together. ■ 7 Class S shares. Davis Advisors began managing the Fund on May 1, 1993. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 8 While Davis Advisors attempts to manage risk there is no guarantee that an investor will not lose money. Diversification does not ensure against loss.
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This report is authorized for use by existing shareholders. A current Selected American Shares prospectus must accompany or precede this material if it is distributed to prospective shareholders. You should carefully consider the Fund’s investment objective, risks, fees, and expenses before investing. Read the prospectus carefully before you invest or send money. Selected American Shares’ investment objective is capital growth and income. In the current market environment, we expect that income will be low. There can be no assurance that the Fund will achieve its objective. Selected American Shares invests primarily in equity securities issued by large companies with market capitalizations of at least $10 billion. Some important risks of an investment in the Fund are: market risk: the market value of shares of common stock can change rapidly and unpredictably and have the potential for loss; company risk: equity securities represent ownership positions in companies. Over time, the market value of a common stock should reflect the success or failure of the company issuing the stock; financial services risk: investing a significant portion of assets in the financial services sector may cause a fund to be more volatile as securities within the financial services sector are more prone to regulatory action in the financial services industry, more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations and are the target of increased competition; fees and expenses risk: fees and expenses reduce the return which a shareholder may earn by investing in a fund; and foreign country risk: foreign companies may be subject to greater risk as foreign economies may not be as strong or diversified, foreign political systems may not be as stable and foreign financial reporting standards may not be as rigorous as they are in the United States. As of June 30, 2010, Selected American Shares had approximately 17.2% of assets invested in foreign companies. See the prospectus for a complete listing of the principal risks. Davis Advisors is committed to communicating with our investment partners as candidly as possible because we believe our investors benefit from understanding our investment philosophy and approach. Our views and opinions regarding the investment prospects of our portfolio holdings and Fund include “forward looking statements” which may or may not be accurate over the long term. Forward looking statements can be identified by words like “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” or similar expressions when discussing prospects for particular portfolio holdings and/or the Fund. You should not place undue reliance on forward looking statements, which are current as of the date of this report. We disclaim any obligation to update or alter any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. While we believe we have a reasonable basis for our appraisals and we have confidence in our opinions, actual results may differ materially from those we anticipate. The information provided in this material should not be considered a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. As of June 30, 2010, Selected American Shares had invested the following percentages of its assets in the companies listed: American Express, 4.44%; Ameriprise Financial, 0.72%; Bank of New York Mellon, 2.46%; Becton, Dickinson, 0.94%; Berkshire Hathaway, 4.00%; Canadian Natural Resources, 2.34%; Coca-Cola, 1.24%; Costco Wholesale, 4.66%; CVS Caremark, 3.11%; Devon Energy, 3.11%; Diageo, 1.39%; EOG Resources, 4.16%; Express Scripts, 1.64%; Heineken, 1.20%; JPMorgan Chase, 0.11%; Loews, 2.82%; Merck, 3.01%; Monsanto, 0.38%; Nestlé, 0.16%; Occidental Petroleum, 4.75%; Pfizer, 1.74%; Procter & Gamble, 1.69%; Progressive Corp., 2.61%; Sealed Air, 2.60%; Wells Fargo, 4.58%.
Selected Funds has adopted a Portfolio Holdings Disclosure policy that governs the release of non-public portfolio holding information. This policy is described in detail in the prospectus. Click here or call 800-243-1575 for the most current public portfolio holdings information. Broker-dealers and other financial intermediaries may charge Davis Advisors substantial fees for selling its products and providing continuing support to clients and shareholders. For example, broker-dealers and other financial intermediaries may charge: sales commissions; distribution and service fees; and record-keeping fees. In addition, payments or reimbursements may be requested for: marketing support concerning Davis Advisors’ products; placement on a list of offered products; access to sales meetings, sales representatives and management representatives; and participation in conferences or seminars, sales or training programs for invited registered representatives and other employees, client and investor events, and other dealer-sponsored events. Financial advisors should not consider Davis Advisors’ payment(s) to a financial intermediary as a basis for recommending Davis Advisors. Over the last five years, the high and low turnover ratio for Selected American Shares was 18% and 4%, respectively. We gather our index data from a combination of reputable sources, including, but not limited to, Thomson Financial, Lipper and index websites. The S&P 500® Index is an unmanaged index of 500 selected common stocks, most of which are listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The Index is adjusted for dividends, weighted towards stocks with large market capitalizations and represents approximately two-thirds of the total market value of all domestic common stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue chip stocks. The Dow Jones is calculated by adding the closing prices of the component stocks and using a divisor that is adjusted for splits and stock dividends equal to 10% or more of the market value of an issue as well as substitutions and mergers. The average is quoted in points, not in dollars. Investments cannot be made directly in an index. After October 31, 2010, this material must be accompanied by a supplement containing performance data for the most recent quarter end. Shares of the Selected Funds are not deposits or obligations of any bank, are not guaranteed by any bank, are not insured by the FDIC or any other agency, and involve investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested. Item #4766 6/10 Davis Distributors, LLC, 2949 East Elvira Road, Suite 101, Tucson, AZ 85756, 800-243-1575, selectedfunds.com |
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